Blame game and Game plan ... Global Climate Change
3/2/2007
Climate scientists surer than ever: Man's to blame
February/March 2007
The distinction between "likely" and "very likely" might seem slight to most people, but to climate scientists, it's huge.
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Court orders Bush Administration to turn over scientific reports on global warming
Warning on Warming: Bill McKibben, Green Institute Advisor
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In
2001, an international panel charged with reviewing all the evidence
for and against global warming said emissions from power plants, cars
and industries were likely contributing to rising temperatures around
the world.
Today in
"This
says we are 90 percent sure the bulk of global warming is caused by
[man-made] greenhouse gases," said Thomas Ackerman, director of the
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans. "We'll
leave a little wiggle room because we're scientists and that's the way
we think, but 90 percent is about as good as it gets."
Eleven
of the hottest years on record have occurred in the past 12 years, and
the convergence of melting glaciers, vanishing permafrost and rising
sea levels cannot be explained by natural climate variation, according
to a draft of the report that concludes: "Warming of the climate system
is unequivocal."
The
draft says the future holds parched conditions for Africa, much of
South and Central America and the American Southwest, while winter
rains will intensify, replacing snow across more northern latitudes —
including the
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IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch
Assessment Report - http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/wg1outlines.pdf
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With
more than 500 scientists and government leaders poring over every
nuance of the report, today's final version may differ slightly from
the draft, but the basic conclusions won't change, said UW climate
scientist Philip Mote, lead author for the report's chapter on ice and
snow.
"This is a pretty strong statement," he said.
The
new report is the fourth from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, established in 1988 by the United Nations and the World
Meteorological Organization. As the most forceful consensus yet on
the perils of global warming, it could sway governments and industries.
And it comes at a time when the issue is receiving unprecedented
attention in the
Though
his administration has so far opposed emission limits, President Bush
acknowledged "the serious challenge of global climate change" in his
State of the Union address. Congress convened hearings this week and is
considering several bills to cap emissions.
States and cities, including
are enacting their own measures to scale back carbon dioxide, the
primary heat-trapping gas. And last week, the leaders of 10 major
corporations, including General Electric and oil giant BP America,
called for mandatory emission limits.
Based
on more than five years of additional data and study, the new report
warns that even if emissions level off, warming and sea-level rise will
continue for centuries. The world is already experiencing droughts,
drenching rains, tidal surges, heat waves and more intense hurricanes
that "more likely than not" are the result of global warming, the draft
says.
Scientists
say complex computer models have accurately predicted most of the
climate change so far, increasing their confidence in future
projections. They've also been able to tease out evidence of global
warming on smaller scales than ever before, showing that every
continent except
Carbon-dioxide
levels in the atmosphere are higher than any time in the past 650,000
years, according to studies of ice cores, and average global
temperatures have increased about 1.3 degrees F since the dawn of the
industrial age. Sea level rose nearly 7 inches during the 20th century,
and the rate of rise has more than doubled in the past decade.
But
based on a new understanding of the way the oceans expand as they
absorb heat, the report is expected to scale back earlier predictions
that sea level could rise nearly 3 feet by the end of this century,
flooding islands and coastal areas. The most probable sea-level rise
remains the same, about 16 inches, but the worst-case estimate is now
just under 2 feet.
Some
scientists are pushing for a rewrite of that section of the report,
arguing that it doesn't take into account the recent collapse of a
major ice shelf in Antarctica and the accelerating loss of ice from
The
planet could well get hot enough to melt the Greenland ice sheet,
raising water levels by 23 feet, but the change will occur very
gradually, over a thousand years or more, the draft says.
The
draft predicts temperature increases of 2 to 11 degrees by the end of
the century, depending on the level of greenhouse emissions. The
scientists say the most likely temperature increase will be between 3
and 7 degrees — more than enough to seriously disrupt global weather
patterns and ocean circulation.
For
the first time, the report also points out that as oceans absorb carbon
dioxide, they are becoming more acidic. A team of Seattle-based
scientists reported in 2004 that the change imperils the tiny shellfish
that are vital to the marine food chain.
Though
additional warming is now inevitable, if emissions were significantly
scaled back and alternative energy sources phased in soon, the outlook
could improve within 30 to 50 years, said Chris Bretherton, director of
the UW Program on Climate Change.
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[more ::]
[Update - May 2007]
Delegates Reach Deal on Climate Change
4, 2007 (Reuters) - Humans must make sweeping cuts in greenhouse gas
emissions in the next 50 years to keep global warming in check, but it
need cost only a tiny fraction of world economic output, a major U.N.
report said on Friday.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said keeping the
temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) would cost only 0.12
percent of annual gross domestic product.
"It's
a low premium to pay to reduce the risk of major climate damage," Bill
Hare, a Greenpeace adviser who co-authored the report told Reuters
after marathon talks that ran over their four-day schedule to finalize
the document.
The report "shows
that it's economically and technically feasible to make deep emission
reductions sufficient to limit warming to 2 degrees," he said.
To
keep within that limit, which scientists and the European Union say is
needed to stave off disastrous climate changes, carbon dioxide
emissions need to fall 50 to 85 percent by 2050 ...
In quotes: Climate report reaction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has
presented a major report to a UN environmental conference in Bangkok,
suggesting the growth in greenhouse gas emissions can be curbed at
reasonable cost.
presented a major report to a UN environmental conference in Bangkok,
suggesting the growth in greenhouse gas emissions can be curbed at
reasonable cost.
It sets out the costs and benefits of various policies,
notably increasing renewable energy, reducing deforestation and
improving energy efficiency. Here are some early reactions to the
report:
GAVIN EDWARDS, head of climate and energy, Greenpeace
This is quite a historic moment. This report has laid out
the solutions to climate change in a way that world leaders can't
ignore.
It's incumbent on world leaders now to take this advice.
If they do so, and do it quickly, we stand a chance of fighting climate
change.
STAVROS DIMAS, EU environment commissioner
Negotiations on a new global climate change agreement must be launched at the next UN ministerial conference in December.
It is now time for the rest of the international community to follow our lead and commit to ambitious reduction targets.
HARLAN WATSON, US senior climate negotiator
The US was an active and constructive participant in the
international dialogue among experts and governments meeting in
Bangkok.
The result of this exchange is a summary document that
will help policy makers around the world make more informed decisions
in addressing the economic, energy and associated technological
implications of global climate change.
ZHOU DADI, report author and Chinese researcher
The Chinese government was constructive and was
contributing to making the report reflect the science. We are not
threatened by the report.
STEPHAN SINGER, spokesman WWF
We were positively surprised by this report. It is a victory of sound science over junk science.
It shows that no government can hide away from cutting
global emissions. It will help the globe to stay below two degrees
global warming in a cost-effective way.
OMAR MASERA CERUTI, report author, National Univ of Mexico
I think this report gives a very optimistic message. It
shows there are many options and many ways to mitigate climate change,
to avoid going into the scenarios where damage is inevitable. Many of
these options are low cost or even of negative cost.
This report says that we all really need to act now - not only governments but the public at large.
PETER LUKEY, South African delegate
Everything we wanted to see was there and more. The message is: We have to do something now.
CHRIS COCKLIN, report author, James Cook University
Essentially, countries of all stripes and colours will
have to build climate implications into all their economic development
planning in a way that will minimise greenhouse gas emissions.
ULRICH WIHELM, German government spokesman
[The report shows] - and this is encouraging - that ambitious climate protection is economically manageable.
[It is] very important to take this momentum to the consultations of the environment ministers at the end of the year in Bali.
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445 a hotly debated number at conference
BANGKOK, Thailand / Associated Press
445 was the hot number at this week‘s climate change conference in Bangkok.
European countries, by contrast, used the figure as a rallying cry to save the planet.
"Time
is running out," said Olav Hohmeyer, a delegate from Germany which
supports tough emission caps. "We have the measures, but we have to put
the policies in place and act upon them. We have to do it because time
is short."
In the
end, the report included language saying the world must stabilize the
amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by 2015 to keep global
temperatures from rising more than 3.6 degrees — which would mean
capping emission levels around 445 parts per million.
James
Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental
Quality, said the 3 percent figure would lead to a global recession.
"So that is something we‘d probably want to avoid. Our goal is reducing
emissions and growing the economy," he said.
"It‘s difficult to even achieve (445 parts per million) when you include all emissions," Zhou said.
Science
would appear to be on the side of the Europeans, who are lobbying for
an international climate agreement limiting temperatures increases to 2
degrees.
"There
are many who feel 450 parts per million is a threshold that we don‘t
want to go across and that we want to stabilize CO2 concentrations at
that level," Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center
at Penn State University, told The Associated Press. "We‘re playing
with fire here."
Much
of the worst damage, including droughts, coastal flooding, hunger and
global instability, outlined in a report released by the panel last
month don‘t kick in until after greenhouse gas emissions reach 450
parts per million. The world will hit that level in about three decades
at the current rate, maybe earlier, Mann said.
"This
is at a point where the science is very imperfect and there is a lot
more that needs to be known," said Alan Oxley, chairman of the
Australia APEC Study Center, a free-trade think tank.
"There
is not scientific certainty about this. It‘s very long term," he said.
"The claims of imminent disaster are not supportable. The focus is
wrong. The focus should be on creating a global consensus on reducing
global emissions rather than erecting impractical and uncertain
targets."
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GOOGLE.COM / REFERENCES
May 4, 2007
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